- Bitcoin’s MVRV has fallen below its 180-day moving average.
- Demand Bitcoin began to decline after rising since the beginning of March.
- Bitcoin transaction volumes remain high despite the number of active addresses approaching a yearly low.
Bitcoin’s key on-chain indicator, Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), has fallen below its 180-day moving average. Analyst Ali Martinez считает, that this is a signal of a market “reset,” which historically opens a window of opportunity for long-term buyers.
The MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. A higher ratio often indicates that traders are paying more than the average price. Bitcoin According to blockchain data, a decrease in the coefficient indicates a decrease in the premium.
The MVRV ratio fell from above 2,2 at the end of last year to a range of 1,4–1,5 in May. The indicator’s decline indicates a premium compression: traders are no longer willing to pay a significant premium above the average on-chain price of coins. Ali Martinez himself called this zone an accumulation zone, despite the fact that in standard technical models, a move below the 180-day moving average can be considered a bearish signal.
Analyst Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant confirmed the start of a bullish trend. According to him words, aggregate demand for Bitcoin began to decline after rising since the beginning of March, with the earlier growth being driven mainly by speculative demand for perpetual futures.
The paradoxical picture is complemented by statistics on the number of transactions and the number of active addresses from analytics CW. The number of daily transfers remains high, while the number of unique addresses has fallen to annual lows.
This indicates a concentration of activity in the hands of a smaller number of participants. The analyst described the remaining players as “smart investors” who continue to actively move funds. The lack of panic and the relatively calm decline indicate a cooling rather than capitulation.
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