- Trump’s new publication destabilized risk asset markets and caused Bitcoin to fall below $77,000.
- At the same time, research Binance Research shows that BTC selling pressure is almost exhausted.
Bitcoin fell below $77,000 amid rising tensions in the Middle East. After Donald Trump warned Iran says “time is running out” as cryptocurrency markets and global risk assets fall.
Total capitalization crypto market declined by 1,7% to $2,64 trillion. Ethereum fell to $2122, the rate XRP dropped to $1,39.
Meanwhile, experts Binance Research published a study listing four indicators that indicate that selling pressure is on the rise Bitcoin is about to run out.
According to the analysis, nearly 60% of all Bitcoin has not moved for more than a year, a figure that has been steadily increasing since 2012, when it was just 27%.
Data Binance Research
In January 2024, when spot prices were approved bitcoin ETF, this indicator peaked at 69,5% and, despite the subsequent sell-on-the-news reaction, remained near all-time highs.
During that period, short-term speculators exited the market. The short-term and long-term realized value indicator was in the lower zone, signaling a net exit of speculative traders.
Data Binance Research
Statistically, each previous cycle reached its minimum at the very moment when this indicator entered the zone in which it is located today.
Exchange balances peaked at 17,6% of total supply during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Data Binance Research
Their share now stands at 15%, meaning that since then, approximately half a million bitcoins have been moved to cold storage and private accounts. The available supply on exchanges is at a six-year low.
Short-term holders are quietly recovering their gains. The MVRV (Minimum Real Value) indicator for short-term Bitcoin holders has remained below 1,0 for most of the period since November 2024, gradually draining sellers’ positions.
It just returned to 1,0, marking the point where short-term holders return to unrealized profit territory. Historically, this situation has preceded a sustained recovery rather than a further decline.
Currently, we have the following: long-term holders are not selling, short-term speculators have exited their positions, and supply on exchanges is at multi-year lows. Traders who typically sold on price increases now have small unrealized profits and are not in urgent need of liquidation.
In other words, those most likely to cause Bitcoin’s price to collapse have already done so. The structural situation corresponds to the cycle’s lows, not its peaks.
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