- Extremely “lucky and big bets” on oil prices made ahead of Donald Trump’s speeches have generated huge profits for individual traders.
- American regulators were most interested in four transactions with a total value of $2,6 billion.
- It is no coincidence that US politicians have been banned from betting on prediction markets.
The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) started an investigation on a number of oil deals that took place shortly before President Donald Trump made statements regarding the conflict with Iran.
Four separate trades, worth a total of $2,6 billion, are currently under investigation. These were bets on falling oil prices, made immediately before the sharp decline in prices. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that on March 23, just 15 minutes before Trump announced his decision to suspend strikes on Iran’s energy grid, a $500 million bet on falling oil prices was placed.
Investigators uncovered another bearish bet worth $960 million, placed on April 7, shortly before Trump announced a temporary ceasefire in the ongoing conflict. Another “timely” bearish bet worth $430 million was placed on April 21, again just 15 minutes before Trump announced his decision to extend the ceasefire.
The fourth suspicious bet is a $760 million position opened on April 17, 20 minutes before Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi сообщил on social media that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open.
It was the accuracy of these bets that attracted the attention of regulators. Investigators suspect the presence of non-public insider information obtained in advance, which is strictly prohibited in the prediction market.
It’s worth noting that it’s not so easy to identify the people who made these deals. It’s no coincidence that the US Senate a ban was adopted on the participation of senators in prediction markets.
Risk Warning:
The information on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or financial recommendations. Cryptocurrencies and digital assets carry a high level of risk, including possible loss of capital. The editors are not responsible for decisions made based on the published materials. It is recommended that you conduct your own research (DYOR) before making investment decisions. Read the editorial policy. https://happycoin.club/about/