- Researchers have explored the true power of collective intelligence in forecasting on a platform. polymarket.
- It turned out that only 3,14% of accounts had sufficient forecasting skills to make a profit.
Working document The paper, titled “Prediction Market Accuracy: Collective Wisdom or Informed Minority?”, was published on April 20, 2026, and revised on April 25, 2026. It was authored by researchers from London Business School and Yale University.
They analyzed the transaction history on polymarket, examining 98,906 events, 210,322 markets and a total trading volume of $13,76 billion across 1,72 million accounts.
SSRN research data
Using a random sign sampling method, the authors divided traders into groups depending on whether their profits reflected analytical skill or chance.
The results contradict prediction markets’ claims. Kalshi и polymarket that their accuracy is the result of the collective intelligence of a diverse group of participants.
Only 3,14% of accounts polymarket met the criteria for winners. These traders generated consistent profits that were maintained across the sample. They traded an average of 79 markets each and consistently held positions consistent with the final results. The rest 96% of accounts either broke even or suffered losses.
The authors found that the orders of, so to speak, experienced traders statistically significantly predicted both price changes in the next period and the final market results. Successful traders, however, despite having positive account balances, demonstrated no significant predictive ability in any of the tests.
From December 2023, the monthly trading volume on polymarket grew from $3,3 million to $1,98 billion in December 2025, representing a nearly 600-fold increase in two years. Over the same period, the number of active accounts increased from 1600 to more than 519,000. Despite this growth, the number of true “visionaries” remained small.
Researchers also identified 1950 accounts that may have traded based on non-public information. On average, each of these accounts earned approximately $15,000 in profits and exerted significant influence on stock prices when they executed their trades. One case involved three accounts that opened positions in a contract linked to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro hours before the covert US military operation on January 3, 2026. They ended up pocketing a total of over $630,000.
Recently It revealed, that a US Army service member engaged in insider trading using one of these accounts. However, this was isolated and isolated.
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