- John Wang is the head of one division. Kalshi believes that the trading volume of the competing platform polymarket overstated.
- At the same time, users Kalshi Most often they bet on sports, and traders polymarket also on politics, economics and events in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Head of division KalshiJohn Wang, a forecaster and cryptocurrency expert, questioned the accuracy of trading volumes. polymarket.
In his message on social media, Van wrote, that in March Kalshi registered a trading volume of about $13 billion, compared to $10 billion on polymarket. At the same time, he did not agreed with both platforms processing $12 billion each.
Spencer Bogart’s data
Wang emphasized that the two platforms operate differently, in particular, Kalshi should only be compared with the American version polymarket, which is mainly focused on sports.
Trade on Kalshi is predominantly driven by sports, while polymarket has a broader range of events—politics, economics, and cryptocurrency. Because of these differences, experts note, it’s difficult to make a simple comparison of trading volumes.
It is no coincidence that Wang added that war-related contracts make up a significant portion of the platform’s political markets, which are absent from Kalshi does not offer.
He also expressed concern about the possibility of wash trading, where the same trader buys and sells to artificially inflate trading volume. Wang, however, does not rule out the possibility that this could occur in the most active markets. polymarket, although there is no evidence for this.
Researcher Nick Devore spent compared the platforms and concluded that trading activity on polymarket is largely driven by speculation rather than realistic forecasting.
Specifically, approximately 70% of trades are on candidates with a less than 1% chance of winning the US presidential election. Traders are placing large bets on unlikely candidates like LeBron James and Kim Kardashian, excluding mainstream politicians.
According to him, Kalshi It focuses more on more realistic contenders, making it similar to a traditional prediction market.
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