Although investors aren’t anticipating any interest rate changes, global markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision next Wednesday. With inflation still above target, geopolitical risks are increasing oil price volatility and, consequently, risky assets.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting planned The rate decision is expected at 22:00 PM Moscow time on April 28-29. The CME FedWatch tool estimates the probability of rates remaining in the 3,50%-3,75% range at approximately 99%; this would be the third such decision.
On According to The U.S. consumer price index rose 3,3% year-over-year in March, keeping inflation above the central bank’s 2% target, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Fed’s March forecasts also pointed to a possible rate cut of just 25 basis points in 2026, but officials may avoid aggressive monetary easing until inflation shows more pronounced growth.
Essentially, the pause is already priced into stocks, so markets may react more to Powell’s language than to the decision itself. A tough stance could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, increasing pressure on stocks, gold, emerging market currencies, and Bitcoin.
A more dovish stance could support risk appetite. Investors could interpret any less restrictive tone as a sign that the Fed is preparing for a more flexible policy stance, especially as Powell’s term approaches its end on May 15.
Currently, the main factor destabilizing markets is the armed conflict in the Middle East, and a peace agreement will reduce the risk premium in the oil market, ease inflation concerns, and strengthen confidence in the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
A sustainable resolution to the Iranian conflict could reduce the risk premium in the oil market, ease inflation concerns, and boost confidence in the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
It should be noted that institutional players are not slowing down their activity, and, according to According to Farside, April 22 in spot bitcoin ETF $335,8 million was received, and on April 23 – $223,3 million, with IBIT from BlackRock leading the way.
If geopolitical risk declines and the Fed stops imposing restrictive measures, Bitcoin and other risky assets will see an influx of liquidity.
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