- Bitcoin’s price has risen since early April, but CryptoQuant still considers the increase a “bear market rally.”
- According to the company’s experts, Bitcoin holders are increasingly taking profits after growth, although it may take time for a correction to occur.
Bitcoin The stock has risen more than 20% since the beginning of April, reaching a three-month high thanks to a combination of factors including historical undervaluation, easing macroeconomic pressures, and a sharp rise in demand for perpetual futures, according to a report from Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. Despite the rise, the expert still calls it a “bear market rally.”
According to Moreno, Bitcoin holders already received 14,000 BTC in daily profit on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. The Short-Term Holder Profit (STP) indicator, which tracks whether short-term holders are selling coins at a profit or a loss, also rose to 1,016 and has remained above 1,00 since mid-April.
The shift from net loss realization to net profit realization is a structural turning point in the bear market dynamic. The return to positive territory reflects the extent to which the April and May price increases have restored profitability for all holders, the analyst believes.
Based on the 30-day rolling period, Bitcoin holders are seeing a net gain of +20,000 BTC. This is the first positive value since December 22, 2025, following a period of significant net losses in February and March, which reached -398,000 BTC.
However, the current net gain level of +20,000 BTC is still well below the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range that has historically been associated with a transition to a bull market.
This rather confirms the bear market classification than a structural regime change, Moreno said.
Previously edited Happy Coin News Reported, that Julio Moreno called Bitcoin’s April rally speculative, as it was fueled by demand for futures, while demand in the spot market continues to shrink.
Risk Warning:
The information on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or financial recommendations. Cryptocurrencies and digital assets carry a high level of risk, including possible loss of capital. The editors are not responsible for decisions made based on the published materials. It is recommended that you conduct your own research (DYOR) before making investment decisions. Read the editorial policy. https://happycoin.club/about/