Updated: 14.04.2026
- Bitcoin has performed well since the start of the conflict in Iran, rising 12%.
- Bitwise analysts argue that the growth is directly linked to geopolitical fragmentation.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen published a new research note. In it, they argue that Bitcoin’s recent surge is linked to the US-Iran conflict, as the rift in the global financial system increases the appeal of neutral, non-state-backed currencies.
Chaos is a staircase, – Wrote top managers.
Since the US and Israel began airstrikes on February 28, Bitcoin rose 12%, while the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold fell 10%. This divergence from the conventional wisdom that during geopolitical upheavals Bitcoin should behave like a high-risk asset, is questioned.
Bitwise positions its flagship cryptoasset as “two scenarios in one.” The first is familiar to many: gold challenging gold in the global store of value. The second is less common: Bitcoin’s potential role as a settlement currency in international trade. While this scenario was previously considered unlikely, it is now gaining momentum. Just recall Iran’s willingness. accept BTC to pay for oil transit.
It turns out that Bitcoin will increasingly act as a hedge against geopolitical upheavals, rather than simply a speculative asset tied to liquidity cycles. This is why Bitwise analysts now believe that the $1 million price target is more of a baseline than a ceiling.
Famous Bitcoin-maximalist Samson Moe has been talking for a long time that it’s just a matter of time before Bitcoin reaches $1 million. He cites investments in bitcoin ETF, the interest of states in accumulating BTC and forming reserves in it, as well as the adoption of the main cryptocurrency around the world as a means of saving.
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