- Prisoners on polymarket Bets on the end of the ceasefire in Iran seemed suspicious.
- Previously, the forecast market recorded unusual behavior from users who made profits by betting on events in the Middle East.
Recent bets placed on the prediction market polymarket to resume the war in Iran, may turn out to be insider work.
In April, a person whose identity is still unknown created a new account under the pseudonym bullseye123 on polymarket и concluded Two $40,000 bets were placed on US President Donald Trump declaring an end to the ceasefire in Iran by April 15 or 18. The odds of these outcomes having fallen since the bets were placed, the bettor suffered an unrealized loss of $20,094.
bullseye123 bets
Prediction market strategist Rekt Specter считаетthat the bet was placed by an insider for the following reasons:
- The account has not been used for other bets;
- Its owner placed all his money at once and did not increase the bet amount, which indicates his confidence in success.
If Rekt Specter is right, the insider who placed the bets stands to make a huge profit. The fact is, the likelihood of a resumption of fire is before April 15th. is 6%, and by April 18 – 12%. This will allow him to increase his capital more than tenfold.
The hypothesis that an insider is behind the bets on renewed fighting in the Middle East is indirectly supported by data given in publication Happy Coin News about speculation on polymarketIt turned out that some platform users were simultaneously betting on a ceasefire in Iran. They were right and earned over $1 million on bets totaling only about $160,000. This means the odds of winning were slim, and they were taking a significant risk.
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