- Maelstrom Investment Director Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s growth is being held back by the adoption of artificial intelligence.
- Unemployment caused by AI is holding back people’s spending, preventing them from taking out loans and investing in Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin remains above the psychologically important $70,000 mark, co-founder BitMEX And Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes is confident that this is far from the limit. He believes that the price increase to $500,000–750,000 per BTC by the end of 2026 is not related to geopolitical factors.
Hayes believes the biggest threat to growth comes not from armed conflict in the Middle East, but from a “deflationary minefield” that most traders are overlooking. His new theory is based on the growing prevalence of artificial intelligence and its impact on liquidity bitcoin.
В interview Hayes, in a YouTube post on Coinage, suggested that AI displacing highly paid knowledge workers from the labor market is the dominant deflationary force dampening cryptocurrency sentiment. Hayes agreed that oil futures reflect geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, but the cascade of layoffs resulting from AI adoption is tightening credit, reducing consumption, and curbing the surge in liquidity needed for Bitcoin.
He directly calls BTC a “liquidity signaler” that doesn’t move until credit flows open. Given the neutral RSI level, the chart suggests that Bitcoin is in a waiting state.
Current bitcoin price at $70,700 suggests the following picture: the key technical level that traders are watching is resistance at $76,000, with a deeper downside scenario at $75,000.
An RSI level of around 50 does not signal overbought conditions, but rather consolidation with increasing directional tension from below.
If the Israeli-Iranian conflict triggers emergency Fed liquidity measures, BTC could break through the $76,000 resistance and increase its chances of a 30% gain to Hayes’ $250,000 target.
BTC/USD, TradingView data
But deflationAI-driven inflation and monetary tightening will likely keep BTC in the $70,000–$74,000 range until Q3 2026. A breakout will depend on the Fed signaling a course change.
Accelerated AI-driven layoffs could amplify the deflationary shock faster than war-induced ones. liquidity will be able to compensate for it. Bitcoin’s price could retest the level below $70, which would, at a minimum, delay Hayes’s forecast for the next few years.
Arthur Hayes’s predictions have always been bold, take at least the forecast of Bitcoin’s price rising to $200,000 by March 2026, but the current situation requires an extremely balanced approach.
Ambitious figures require powerful catalysts, and one of them is the actions of the US Federal Reserve, whose policy has not yet changed.
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