Updated: 2026-05-17
- Crypto analyst Merlin Trader predicts a significant drop in Bitcoin, all the way to $33,000.
- However, in modern conditions this stage may be skipped, and growth will begin faster than expected.
Analyst Merlin Trader described a historical pattern that may make the phrase “sell in May and walk away” valid when applied to Bitcoin.
Following Bitcoin’s rebound from $82,000 early last week and subsequent correction to a 15-day low of $78,000, bearish sentiment in the crypto market has intensified. Many analysts have begun to describe various scenarios for BTC’s further decline.
Merlin Trader stood out among them by predicting a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price to $33,000. However, this was a worst-case scenario.
According to Merlin’s calculations, in 2014 Bitcoin fell by 61%, in 2018 by 65%, and four years ago by 66%. He described this situation as: “Three cycles. Three crashes. No exceptions.” If this trend continues this year, BTC could fall to $33,000.
Despite the fact that the crypto market has now changed conceptually (the presence of institutions, the advancement of the CLARITY Act), Merlin believes that “the calendar has never been wrong.”
Separate post Merlin focused on another historical pattern that led to a more widespread collapse. This scenario consists of six stages and is less bearish, as the designated targets are between $45,000 and $59,000.
A key marker will be Bitcoin holding at $78,000, and if BTC moves lower, it could fall to Merlin’s targets. If this support holds, the collapse phase could be missed, and the rally could begin faster than expected.
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