- As Trump continues to drum up hype about a ground operation in Iran, prediction markets are betting wildly on different invasion dates.
- Large bets with a high degree of probability are made for April.
- An Iranian politician said Trump’s statements and media publications not only destabilize the global situation but also provide grounds for financial manipulation.
Prediction markets are pricing in a high probability that US troops will invade Iran. polymarket, the largest forecast market by trading volume, the «When will US troops enter Iran?» contract attracted a total of trading volume in the amount of $52,2 million. The market estimates the probability of an attack on Iran at 8% by March 31, 68% by April 30, and 78% by December 31, 2026.
The March 31 contract accounted for $34,5 million of the total volume, indicating significant short-term speculation. Comments on the platform indicate that traders are monitoring the activities of special forces.
Data polymarket
The Pentagon is known to be moving tens of thousands of troops to the Middle East and developing plans to conduct limited ground raids into Iran.
There are currently over 50,000 American troops stationed in the Middle East, an increase of approximately 10,000 compared to the pre-war contingent. Marine units, mechanized infantry, and the 82nd Airborne Division have been added to the existing force.
Washington Post сообщилthat the Pentagon is preparing for several weeks of limited ground operations inside Iran, including near Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote On social media, numerous media publications are often cynical. Their catchy headlines are deliberate and serve a manipulative purpose, which is also reflected in prediction markets.
Ghalibaf characterized the «news» as deliberate schemes designed to allow certain players to lock in profits before a reversal. He called the initial price reaction a reverse indicator: if positive headlines push prices sharply higher, go short, while if negative headlines drop sharply, go long.
Indeed, Trump’s numerous war pronouncements have repeatedly triggered artificial or insider-driven swings in the oil and stock markets, giving certain insiders an unfair advantage.
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