Updated: 21.04.2026
- Traders polymarket They believe that by April the probability of opening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be about 32%.
- Tanker shipping remains less than 5% of pre-war levels.
Prediction market users agree that Hormuz Strait It won’t remain closed forever, but it’s unlikely to open anytime soon.
On According to polymarket, traders believe that by the end of April, the probability of shipping returning to normal levels will be only 32%, by the end of May – 70%, and by June – 82%. According to market data Kalshi, which tracks the average daily tanker transit rate against a benchmark of 60 vessels, said the probability of recovery by June 1 was only 67%.
Application Form Trump’s warning that the strait could open very soon hasn’t moved matters forward. BIMCO, the world’s largest shipowners’ association, has recommended all vessels avoid the area entirely, citing an unidentified mine threat. Tanker traffic is less than 5% of pre-war levels. Ship footage shows tankers attempting to transit the area but turning around mid-way.
Following the ceasefire, Iran imposed a toll of approximately $1 per barrel in cryptocurrency, charging up to $2 million per vessel in Bitcoin, yuan, or USDT. On April 18, Tehran fully reinstated the restrictions, which remain in effect.
Myriad Prediction Market evaluates The probability that the price of Brent crude will rise to $120 per barrel is 63,5%. Only 29% of traders expect Iran to agree to unlimited supplies this month. The probability that Trump will announce a cessation of military operations by June is 70%, although he told reporters this week that he would not rush.
Risk Warning:
The information on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or financial recommendations. Cryptocurrencies and digital assets carry a high level of risk, including possible loss of capital. The editors are not responsible for decisions made based on the published materials. It is recommended that you conduct your own research (DYOR) before making investment decisions. Read the editorial policy. https://happycoin.club/about/