Updated: 09.04.2026
- Traders polymarket and other prediction markets are betting with 100% certainty that the price of Bitcoin will remain above $70,000 in April 2026.
- At higher BTC prices, the probabilities are much lower.
April 1st on the platform polymarket the market was launched “What price will Bitcoin reach in April?”, and since then the trading volume for this contract has amounted to $11,8 million. Traders are currently assessing the likelihood that Bitcoin will hold above $70,000 for a month, 100%. The probabilities drop sharply at higher levels: for $75,000 it is 64%, and for $80,000 it is only 21%.
Source polymarket
At the April market polymarket Trading volume is concentrated at the extremes. A bet on $150,000 raised over $2,57 million, despite its implied probability being less than 1%. Bets on Bitcoin moving below $50,000 and below $60,000 raised approximately $960,000 and $734,000, respectively, despite their implied probability being 3% and 19%.
The contract for Bitcoin to reach $75,000 and $90,000 saw a trading volume of $30,2 million, with a 100% probability. Traders also estimate the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 at 35% and $110,000 at 24%.
Speculative volume at the top of this market remains active. The $1,000,000 result attracted over $647,000 in trading activity, with a 2% probability. Regarding BTC’s decline, the market estimates a 68% chance of a decline to $55,000 or lower in 2026, and a 25% chance of a drop to $35,000.
Members Kalshi rate Bitcoin’s chance of reaching $150,000 by August 2026 is only 4%, and by September 2026, 5%. The probability for January 2027 is 9%. This series of contracts generated a total trading volume of $31,534,933.
Source Kalshi
Tracking Kalshi market, determining when Bitcoin The likelihood of the stock exceeding $100,000 reflects short-term skepticism. The probability of reaching this mark by July 2026 is estimated at 12%, and by October 2026 at 22%. A deadline of January 2027 increases the probability to 36%.
Sentiment regarding breaking the $100,000 mark in April 2026 is extremely negative. The position is “No” on this contract. Kalshi is trading at 99 cents, which implies a 2% chance that Bitcoin will overcome this level by May.
The Myriad platform has a separate market tracks, what level will it reach? Bitcoin First, $84,000 or $55,000. The probability of the two outcomes is almost equal: the bullish scenario is estimated at 51,6% versus 52%, and the bearish scenario with $55,000 is estimated at about 48% versus 48,4%.
Source Myriad
Myriad contract tracking spot price data Binance and opened on February 5, 2026, with a total trading volume of $111,000.
Aggregate data polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad rate the likelihood of BTC breaking above six-figure levels in the near future as low. Traders are hedging risks in both directions, and trading volumes during extreme outcomes suggest that some participants are willing to take large, long-term positions.
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