Co-founder BitMEX and Maelstrom Investment Director Arthur Hayes published an essay “Butterfly Touch,” which predicted a future explosive rally in Bitcoin, the fuse for which has already been lit.
Hayes identified the date of February 28 as the “point of no return”, that is when The United States has started a war against Iran.According to the expert, this was not simply a geopolitical event, but a catalyst for a global shift toward aggressive money printing, increasing government deficits, and structural inflation.
For scarce assets such as BitcoinThese are ideal “laboratory conditions” for rapid growth. Hayes’s view is based on three fundamental pillars of the new global economy.
AI arms race boosts liquidity
Bitcoin rises in price as central banks flood the system with cash. Hayes believes we are entering an era of “unlimited credit expansion” driven by the introduction of artificial intelligence.
The US and China now view AI superiority as a matter of national importance. This stance has triggered an unprecedented surge in spending on data centers, semiconductors, and the power grid. As a result, tech giants can no longer finance their development through operating profits, so they rely on bank loans and government incentives.
China boosts industrial lending despite sharp contraction in real estate lending
War Economy and the End of Stability
The second thesis is the “militarization” of global finance. The conflict in the Middle East has highlighted the fragility of global trade and energy markets. Countries that enjoyed stability with US support are now trying to ensure safety their territories.
In this regard, Hayes predicts a massive wave of debt-financed spending on:
- military infrastructure and rearmament;
- energy independence and domestic production;
- strategic reserves of essential goods.
A war economy always leads to expansion of central bank balance sheets and devaluation of fiat currencies. Bitcoin, according to Hayes, is the best defense against the printing press being turned on.
Bitcoin (gold), Nasdaq 100 (purple), US IGV (white), and gold (orange) performance in the post-war period
The Collapse of the Dollar Reserve Model
For decades, US Treasury bonds have served as the world’s “risk-free” anchor, but this model is crumbling, according to Hayes. In a world of geopolitical crises, financial “paper” assets cannot guarantee the purchase of oil or grain.
As decline in foreign demand American government authorities will be forced to launch liquidity programs to keep the system afloat on American debt obligations. In other words, they will issue more dollars, which will partially flow into Bitcoin.
Hayes wrote that Bitcoin’s recent price action confirms his theory. Despite global uncertainty, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience during the Middle East conflict, bouncing sharply from the $60,000 level and outperforming traditional risk assets.
In this situation, Bitcoin ceased to be simply a “speculative technology play” and turned into a pure indicator of global macro liquidity.
Ultimately, Hayes concluded that the expansion of credit due to the introduction of artificial intelligence, military spending, and the weakening of the traditional financial system would create a “perfect storm,” which should allow Bitcoin to return to its all-time highs.
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