- The excitement around the prediction market can be explained not only by investor interest, but also by dopamine releases.
- This conclusion can be drawn from studying the works of behaviorists.
The crypto industry is accustomed to living in anticipation of the “next big thing” that will generate massive profits. In 2025, prediction markets made a serious bid for this role, attracting a peak in venture capital.
The rise in popularity of prediction markets accelerated during the 2024 US presidential election, when many predicted a victory for Donald Trump. In October 2024, a key decision was made that allowed the company Kalshi offer contracts for congressional and presidential elections.
Today, in 2026, two platforms dominate this sector: Kalshi, assessed $22 billion, and polymarket, valued at $20 billion. On track to achieve this in 2025 Kalshi recorded an 1100% increase in trading volume, reaching 97 million transactions and 5,1 million monthly users. polymarket generated $21,5 billion in annual revenue from a smaller but more active user base.
Vitalik Buterin считает, that prediction markets are an environment conducive to the search for truth without the unhealthy hype typical of social media. Those interested in psychology and behavioral science, in particular, see other reasons for the interest in these platforms.
American psychologist B.F. Skinner offered an understanding of human behavior that went beyond simple reflexes and studied “operant conditioning,” the process by which actions are shaped by their consequences, not just by stimuli.
Skinner’s key findings are widely applied in the gambling industry, and it’s possible that the same mechanisms underlie the popularity of prediction markets. Neuroscience shows that dopamine is associated not so much with the reward itself as with the anticipation of reward.
When the probability of an outcome is uncertain, the brain releases significantly more dopamine than when the outcome is certain. This creates a feedback loop that encourages repeated actions. This is the basis of both gambling and prediction markets: simple, repeated interactions that trigger dopamine responses.
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