- A controversial Paris weather contract, the data for which may have been falsified, has led Vitalik Buterin to question the reliability of sources.
- In his opinion, it is necessary to use at least three independent sources.
After arguing about the weather on polymarket co-founder in Paris Ethereum Vitalik Buterin called on prediction markets to use multiple independent data sources.
Buterin wrote, that using an average of three independent sources should be mandatory and will help prevent a recurrence of such scandalous situations. In the case of the Paris weather, a player used a portable heat source near a Météo-France sensor at Charles de Gaulle Airport.
However, in the meteorological service сообщилиthat the data was incorrect in the contracts polymarket The highest recorded temperature at the station in degrees Celsius was used.
According to the French publication BFMTV, on April 6, the temperature only briefly rose above 21 degrees Celsius, then dropped almost immediately. Meanwhile, the winner received over $16,000.
A similar anomaly was noted in the exchange contract dated April 15. Experts noted that the temperature remained at 18 degrees Celsius for most of the day, then suddenly rose to 22 degrees Celsius, before falling again.
In response to Bubblemaps analysts stated, that no similar surge was observed at neighboring stations. They added that one trader had recently bought NO shares at “18°C” and exited the trade with a profit of over $21,000.
This situation has raised suspicions of possible interference and insider trading, which has become more frequent in recent times.
In this regard, Buterin argues that calculations dependent on a single real-world data source are unreliable. He called for the use of, on average, three or more independent sources in oracles for such markets.
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