- This week, crypto market participants will gain clarity on Bitcoin’s short- and medium-term price outlook.
- Depending on economic indicators in the US, the BTC price may test resistance at $75,000 or support at $62,000.
This week Bitcoin started with consolidation below $70,000, globally the price of BTC is in a compression zone from $65,000 to $71,000, which has been maintained for several weeks.
Based on the chart structure, the $73,700 level above is the immediate resistance, and above that is the psychologically important $75,000 mark, which has been acting as a pivot level since BTC’s last failed breakout attempt.
BTC/USD chart. Data from TradingView
A weekly close above $75,000 on CPI-led volume would provide the first structural confirmation that the bullish scenario remains in place.
The daily RSI is near 53, a neutral level and not oversold, meaning there is no technical low formed solely by momentum exhaustion. The 200-day EMA is approaching the $67,500 support zone, making this level supportive in the short term.
A daily candlestick close below $67,500 opens the way to $62,000, where significant order book depth and the structure of previous accumulation are present. The MVRV ratio remains below 1,5, indicating that the market has not yet reached the euphoric zone, but on-chain buying pressure is insufficient to create sustainable momentum.
The bullish scenario requires a breakout of $71,000, followed by a recovery to $73,700 with steady trading volume and a close at $75,000. The bearish scenario is activated by a strong rebound from $71,000 that cascades through the 200-day EMA and targets the large-asset accumulation zone in the $60,000–$62,000 region.
Deployment of a particular scenario will depend on The US consumer price index, which in turn influences the Federal Reserve’s interest rate determination, is a key factor. The situation in the energy sector will inevitably increase inflation in the country, forcing the regulator to raise interest rates.
At the same time, 178,000 new jobs were created in March, and the unemployment rate remained at 4,3%, so the situation in the labor market does not yet foreshadow a recession, which gives the Fed reason to maintain the current rate.
Publication data The inflation rate in the US on April 10 will affect not only Bitcoin, and will restructure the entire schedule of interest rate reductions on which institutional attitudes toward the cryptocurrency sphere are based.
Data CoinGlass
Inflow of funds into spot bitcoin ETF from BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC demonstrated direct dependence on the exceeding or failure to achieve forecasts for the consumer price index.
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