Prediction markets are gaining wild popularity, thanks in part to headlines about users earning stratospheric profits. However, the reality for the average trader is far more bleak.
Recent analysis, conducted by independent blockchain researcher Andrey Sergeenkov based on 2,5 million wallet addresses, proved that 84,1% of all traders polymarket are currently suffering losses.
In reality, huge wins, such as $400,000 on a bet on the overthrow of the Venezuelan leader, are essentially statistical outliers. In reality, only 2% of users have ever managed to earn more than $1000 in total profit over their entire trading history.
Distribution of activity by average monthly profit threshold. Source: sergeenkov.com
As the profit threshold increases, the “winners’ circle” shrinks to a minimum: 0,32% (8000 addresses) have net winnings of over $10,000, and 0,033% (840 addresses) have surpassed the $100,000 threshold. Beyond the low winning percentage, the data highlights the extreme difficulty of achieving consistent success. For those hoping to make a living from trading, the odds are slim: the probability of earning $5000 in one month is less than 1%.
Remarkably, across all income categories, the largest share of winners remain active for only one month, suggesting that many are counting on a one-time windfall and quitting. Even among the elite group, earning an average of $10,000 per month or more, most stop trading within a few months. Only a tiny fraction of traders remain active for 13 months or more.
Despite the fact that the rates on polymarket Although they are considered accurate forecasting tools, most users perceive prediction markets as gambling.
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